NFL Picks Week 14: Winter Wonderland

The weather is predicted to be horrible across the country. Maybe San Diego is the only same place to watch football. Could it affect games? Possibly, let's make some picks.  

Indianapolis (8-4) at Cincinnati (8-4) (-7) 12:00 pm CBS - The battle to not play Kansas City in the first round is what this game should be called although if New England slips, they could slide into the second position. Honestly, I do not like the smell of either team right now. Indianapolis looks putrid on offense, and I have no idea if they are going to be able to handle Cincinnati's defense. Bengals look bad on offense too, but just a bit better than Indy plus they are at home where they have an edge. CIN 23-14

Atlanta (3-9) at Green Bay (5-6-1) (-3) 12:00 pm FOX - Check out my Packer preview from earlier. There is a paragraph you can forget about since Aaron Rodgers is not playing.  

Cleveland (4-8) at New England (9-3) (-12.5) 12:00 pm CBS - Jason Campbell will return and Josh Gordon smiles with joy. I made a mistake not mentioning him last week in the liquor cabinet; he's truly great. New England has the tendency to slip up in games like these where they play a little more lax versus against a good team. I think it is close like most Browns games are, but the Patriots take care of business  NE 27-23

Oakland (4-8) at New York Jets (5-7) (-3) 12:00 pm CBS - Other than Houston, New York Jets are the biggest mess in football. It is not like a chaotic mess rather Geno Smith is just not ready to be an NFL quarterback yet. I feel bad for him because people are piling on with BUST and all other shit like that when it is truly unfair. Oakland wins their second trip to Met Life Stadium this year. I feel like this is a team whose better than their record. OAK 21-10  

Detroit (7-5) at Philadelphia (7-5) (-3) 12:00 pm FOX - Probably the best game on the early slate. Both of these teams need a win to stay ahead in their division with others biting on their heels. People look at the score from Thanksgiving and think 'Wow the Lions are coming into form' without realizing they turned the ball over four times. Philadelphia's defense has gotten better since the start of the year, and their offensive line can protect Nick Foles meaning he is going to go bonkers. I swear this is not my bias; Philadelphia wins by double-digits. PHI 30-17

Miami (6-6) at Pittsburgh (5-7) (-3) 12:00 pm CBS - It is crazy I still think about Dan Marino's struggles in December whenever Miami is on the road in the December even today. Both of these teams need a win desperately to keep their playoff hopes alive. In some of these games, it comes down to what you know about the NFL. I cannot see Ryan Tannehill leading the charge on the road against Ben Roethlisberger in the cold. I like the Steelers in a higher-than-expected scoring game. PITT 33-28  

Buffalo (4-8) at Tampa Bay (3-9) (-3) 12:00 pm CBS - I felt like Buffalo's defense took a couple steps back in the last couple of weeks. But their offense did at least look better last week against Atlanta. Tampa Bay faced a tough defense and were shut down like Jon Taffer does to poorly ran bars. Despite the line, it is a pick'em game honestly. In my best John Madden, whatever young quarterback does not make too many mistakes wins the game. Let's go with the home team. TB 24-20

Kansas City (9-3) (-3) at Washington (3-9) 12:00 pm CBS - Must-win for Kansas City. I realize they are probably locked into the fifth spot unless something real wacky happens in the next couple weeks. Kansas City's defense especially their secondary needs to find themselves and make some stops. They have been a sieve against Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers. Big game for Washington whose offense looked better last week, but can they translate it over for a consecutive week?  With how it is going for Kansas City, I have to assume it will be high scoring meaning it will be close, I will take the Chiefs to make one more stop.
KC 34-31

Minnesota (3-8-1) at Baltimore (6-6) (-7) 12:00 pm FOX - This is one of those games where Joe Flacco comes out and takes a dump directly in the middle of the field. Where everyone is expecting a Baltimore win, somehow they end up losing and not putting up points. Minnesota seemed to find themselves in the last couple of weeks, and Adrian Peterson is still doing Adrian Peterson things. For my Baltimore concerns above, I think it is closer game than expected, but I like the home team still.  BALT 23-21

Tennessee (5-7) at Denver (10-2) (-13) 3:05 pm CBS - The weather is going to be awful in this one with a high of 16 with a 30 percent chance to snow meaning eyes will be on Peyton Manning. If he were to come out and say look less than stellar, people might start pushing the panic button with him. But I cannot take Ryan Fitzpatrick to go into Denver and win this game. If that happens, I will probably shave off all my body hair. Manning will be able to figure out the cold, and win this football game going away. DEN 38-17

St. Louis (5-7) at Arizona (7-5) (-6) 3:25 pm FOX - I would not be alarmed by Arizona's performance against Philadelphia. I think they finally played a pretty good team on the road and got humbled. Same goes for St. Louis whose offense came to a halt against San Francisco. I cannot see Rams suddenly finding offense again playing a tough Arizona team. Cardinals will roll and stay alive in the playoff hunt. ARIZ 31-14

New York Giants (5-7) at San Diego (5-7) (-3) 3:25 pm FOX - ELI MANNING BOWL. If these two teams were good, this would be beaten to death. Both teams need to keep winning to hold onto their slim playoff hopes, but San Diego looks like a far bigger mess than New York. Their offense could not have been more stagnant at home, and I cannot pick them against a still potent Giants team. NYG 28-17

Seattle (11-1) at San Francisco (8-4) (-3) 3:25 pm FOX - Here's where narratives are going to get fun. San Francisco is winning this football game. I think Seattle playing on a short week heading to San Fran where they do not usually lose plus a once again emerging Colin Kaepernick will cause Seahawks to lose this football game. Meaning people will raise all sorts of questions about Seattle and start hyping up San Francisco who has been just there all season. Should note if the Niners lose, NFC playoff hunt gets a little crazier. SF 20-16

Carolina (9-3) at New Orleans (9-3) (-3) 7:30 pm NBC - Sigh. I cannot believe I am doing this, but here we go... I am taking Carolina. The reason I am taking Carolina is for the following three reasons. 1.) They are better on the lines. Everyone forgets about this, but the Panthers can dominate them there. 2.) If Russell Wilson can do things against this Saints defense so can Cam Newton and then some honestly. Newton could really expose Rob Ryan's defense.  3.) Coming off a short week against Seattle does not make me feel comfortable with picking this team. My only worry is a bad first quarter could engulf Carolina, but give me Riverboat Ron. CAR 28-27  

Dallas (7-5) at Chicago (6-6) (PICK'EM) 7:30 pm ESPN - Like the other NFC North-NFC East battle, both teams need this win badly, and obviously whatever team loses in the Detroit-Philadelphia matchup, this game will mean more to either Dallas or Chicago if that makes sense. I cannot trust Chicago. They are still giving up way too much on the ground and if Jason Garrett commits to the run on a cold Windy City night, Dallas will win this game going away. I have the Cowboys believing in Garrett which is a terrifying thought. DAL 27-23

Straight Up: 123-68-1

ATS: 85-99-3

Charlie.