Figuring out the Blacked Out Drunk BCS

To say the Bowl Championship Standings is drunk is an understatement. It is blacked out drunk. There are no great teams in college football this year (Sorry, I like Alabama, but their defense still has me speculative). Honestly, this might be the most chaotic November upcoming and that is saying something for the last five to seven years. I have to sort through this and try to figure out who is in the best position to make it to the National Championship plus who is on the worst footing.  Let's do the top 12 teams in the BCS.

12.) UCLA Bruins
Do they have a lost? - Yes, one to Stanford on the road.
Toughest games left on the schedule - at Oregon (10/26), vs. Washington (11/15) vs. Arizona State (11/23) - There is a chance UCLA could travel to Eugene twice this season for the Pac-12 Championship if UCLA wins the Pac-12 South.
Sneaky upset possibility - at USC (11/30) - Always a tough game given its rivalry between the two teams. USC would love nothing more than to take the Pac-12 South away from them.
BCS Chances? - 0-5% chance for BCS National Championship and 30-45% chance for BCS game -  Probably dependent on if Oregon gets to the National Championship game.  Although do not discredit UCLA based off their loss to Stanford, Brett Hundley and the Bruins are a pretty solid team who just played a bad game.

11.) Auburn Tigers
Do they have a lost? -  Yes, one to LSU on the road
Toughest games left on the schedule - vs. Georgia (11/16), vs. Alabama (11/30) - Two biggest games left of the slate are at home plus the Tigers get a week off before playing their rivals, Alabama. Could get interesting.
Sneaky upset possibility - at Tennessee (11/9) - The Vols have already shown they have an ability to beat good teams and the Vols could exploit their poor defense.
BCS Chances? - 10-20% chance for BCS National Championship and 30-45% chance for BCS game -  I mean weirder shit has happened and they get their two hardest games at home. They have a chance here if they were to somehow make the SEC Championship game.

10.) Texas Tech Red Raiders
Do they have a lost? -  No.
Toughest games left on the schedule - at Oklahoma (10/26), vs. Baylor (11/16), at Texas (11/28) - Brutal schedule to finish out the year with a young team. This might not end well for the Red Raiders.
Sneaky upset possibility -  The rest of their games are pretty tough. I guess you could call Kansas State at home an upset possibility but there is nothing where the Red Raiders would trip up.
BCS Chances? - 0-5% chance for BCS National Championship and 10-25% chance for BCS game - This team is only here because of a weak schedule thus far. They have not really beat anyone and struggled with Iowa State whom Baylor put up 70 against. This will be their highest rating of the year.

9.) Clemson Tigers
Do they have a lost? -  Yes, a massacre by Florida State.
Toughest games left on the schedule -  at South Carolina (11/30) - They have a Thursday nighter against Georgia Tech, but realistically, this is a difficult game for all involved especially Steve Spurrier ownership against Clemson.
Sneaky upset possibility - at Maryland (10/26) - You would expect them to come out hot after a major defeat at home yet this feels like a big-time let down game especially traveling to College Park even if Maryland is banged up.
BCS Chances? - 0% chance for BCS National Championship and 50-60% chance for BCS game - I cannot really fathom a situation where Clemson gets into the BCS National Championship game after getting their doors blown off at home. They could get into a National Championship game given Florida State's National Championship chances plus their weaker schedule compared to others.  

8.) Baylor Bears
Do they have a lost? -  No.
Toughest games left on the schedule - vs. Oklahoma (11/7), vs. Texas Tech (11/16), vs. Texas (12/7) - Everything difficult is being played at the terror dome that is Waco, Texas.
Sneaky upset possibility -  at Oklahoma State (11/23) - This is a weak one honestly but this is the game that could give Baylor the most trouble. Oklahoma State is not very good despite their ranking yet it is tough as nails to play in Stillwater.
BCS Chances? -55-70% chance for BCS National Championship and 70-85% chance for BCS game -Maybe I am too high on Baylor (Very possible, I love this goddamn team), but I feel like they have everything working for them. Every difficult game is at home where they play like animals and yes, they have road games but they could work through those ones pretty easily.  

7.) Miami Hurricanes
Do they have a lost? - No.
Toughest games left on the schedule - at Florida State (11/2), vs. Virginia Tech (11/14), NCAA - The Miami-Florida State game will have meaning for the first time in the last ten years it feels like unless the NCAA comes in tomorrow and shits all over this football team which I sort of expect.  
Sneaky upset possibility - at Pittsburgh (11/29) - Miami traveling up Pennsylvania in late November screams upset to the highest degree.
BCS Chances? - TBD - Honestly I have no idea what will happen with the NCAA tomorrow morning. I still do not really like their chances given their schedule. Miami is not strong at all on defense and probably could be their undoing.

6.) Stanford Cardinal
Do they have a lost? - Yes, road game to Utah.
Toughest games left on the schedule -  at Oregon State (10/26), vs Oregon (11/7) - These two games need a tagline but I cannot think of one at this very moment.  Stanford and Oregon both get a full week off before playing each other which makes it more interesting.
Sneaky upset possibility - at USC (11/16) - To think the Trojans could swing two BCS contenders in the Pac-12 and not being one is something that has become the normal.  Like I said, drunk shit happening in college football.  
BCS Chances? - 10%-20% chance to BCS National Championship, 30-40% chance to a BCS game - The only real way Stanford can get to the National Championship is figure out how to survive a road game in Corvalis and then beat the Ducks at home. If they find a way, the path is clear before heading to a Pac-12 Championship where I would believe they would get the home game.

5.) Missouri Tigers
Do they have a lost? - No.
Toughest games left on the schedule -  vs. South Carolina (10/26), vs. Texas A&M (11/30) - I swear to you it feels like Missouri is playing teams at the best possible time. Even though South Carolina lost last week, I doubt Connor Shaw is playing and who knows by the time they get to A&M, Johnny Manziel will probably be out with herpes.
Sneaky upset possibility -  at Ole Miss (11/23) - Yes, they get two weeks to prepare and maybe will have James Franklin back for the game but The Grove is a difficult place to play just ask LSU.
BCS Chances? - 20-35% chance to BCS National Championship, 45-60% chance to BCS game - Look Missouri knows how to bottom out after getting to the top so it is a possibility I am putting too much faith in them. But Maty Mauck looks like a competent backup to Franklin and this defense is really good. Missouri against Alabama for the SEC title would be the weirdest thing on earth.

4.) Ohio State Buckeyes
Do they have a lost? - No.
Toughest games left on the schedule - at Michigan (11/30), Big Ten Championship game - Honestly, Michigan is not a good team but I want to make it seem like the Big Ten is worth a damn. (Just kidding they are not.)
Sneaky upset possibility - at Illinois (11/16) - Goddamn this is sad, B1G. I cannot really put Penn State in there at home for the Buckeyes nor can I for Purdue a team they always struggle with because the Boilermakers are that bad.  
BCS Chances? - 65%-80% for BCS National Championship, 75-90% chance for BCS game - They are should be slotted into the Rose Bowl. Honestly, they are in, I do not know why they should play the rest of the games. They could end up in the National Championship by default with everyone else losing football games. This could be the reality as Big Ten gets there in the most Big Ten way possible.

3.) Oregon Ducks
Do they have a lost? - No.
Toughest games left on the schedule - vs. UCLA (10/26), at Stanford (11/7), vs. Oregon State (11/29) - All the sudden, Oregon has a difficult schedule closing out their season. Cannot forget how good they looked against Washington and UCLA will be another test. Also keep in the back of your head, they have a Pac-12 Championship game possibly too.
Sneaky upset possibility - at Arizona (11/23) - These two have played some wacky games in Tuscon throughout the years. Arizona is not as good as last year, but that's a tough road game.
BCS Chances? - 60-75% chance for BCS National Championship, 70-85% chance for BCS game - I am concerned with all their tough games left if they will be able to get through yet Marcus Mariotta is better than any quarterback with these 12 teams talked about today.

2.) Florida State Seminoles
Do they have a lost? - No.
Toughest games left on the schedule - vs. Miami (11/2), at Florida (11/30) - The Noles have a pretty easy schedule going forward with only two games remaining against teams with obvious flaws. ACC Championship game could be something though the following week after a road game against Florida.
Sneaky upset possibility -  None - I cannot put Wake Forest in there. That's not possible whatsoever.
BCS Chances? - 80-95% chance for BCS National Championship, 85-99% chance for BCS game - I am not saying lock it up here already for Florida State, but the path is pretty clear for them to get there for the first time since 2000. I realize it is more likely to see Alabama-Florida State, but I would do unspeakable things to see Winston v. Mariotta in the National Championship.

1.) Alabama Crimson Tide
Do they have a lost? -  No, c'mon do not be silly.
Toughest games left on the schedule - vs. LSU (11/9), at Auburn (11/30) - I did not expect the Iron Bowl to be a football game this year even more so than Bama-LSU, but here we are. I would not discount LSU even though they struggled in the past couple of weeks.
Sneaky upset possibility -  None - If you think Mississippi State can beat Bama, you either live in Starkville or have no idea what you're talking about with college football.
BCS Chances? - 80-95% chance for BCS National Championship, 85-99% for BCS game - I would be stunned if Alabama is not in the BCS mix. They look good and no one is talking about them because they are not doing anything spectacular or different. Just the same dominating team at this point forgetting they do not have a defense.