Badgers Murky Journey to a BCS At-Large

Many Wisconsin Badgers fans believe their football is getting disrespected as they are only 22nd in the BCS standings. People looking at their schedule would say 'Well having two losses, in the Big Ten should equate to about the 22nd spot'. But then you take they had a bizarre ending to Arizona State game on the road and a loss to Ohio State on the road, and it feels like Wisconsin should probably be somewhere near 12th to 17th. It is not like they have a horrible loss on their schedule. It is not like they are playing inferior opponents... Well that one is a little shakier given the B1G being the B1g, but Wisconsin still has a shot at a BCS at-large spot.

At-Larges are hard to come by. Typically, there are two or three at-large spots available. At-Larges can come in different ways, and the Bowl Championship Series tends to select teams where they know a fanbase will travel given their stadium calamities with people failing to go to these games. These at-larges can get gobble up quickly. First, there is the 'Kansas State Rule' meaning any team ranked in the top four of the BCS at the end of the year getting an automatic invite even if they might not be the best team in conference.  Second, a mid-major can get scoop if they get into the top 12 of the BCS standings or in the top 16 if a Automatic Qualifier finishes below his 16th.  Let's see what Wisconsin would need to have happen to find themselves in an at-large position.

Let's start with the teams who will probably be there unless something crazy happens in the next couple of weeks. Alabama, Florida State, Baylor, Ohio State and UCF will get the automatic bids of their conferences. If one of them were to slip, all of this could change.

Let's also remember a conference can only have two teams. Meaning the teams ahead of Wisconsin that can be taken out is LSU, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Louisville. Now for the rest of the teams, we will rank them by their BCS ranking starting from the bottom working our way to the top.

Arizona State Sun Devils - They currently lead the Pac-12 South meaning they get a spot in the championship game and could have a chance to knock off Stanford or Oregon for a BCS spot. That's probably the only way they get there. Arizona State still have to get past UCLA next week on the road and a home game against Arizona. The Sun Devils slide in if they lose to UCLA but the Bruins fall to USC.

Michigan State Spartans - They are currently ranked 16th in the BCS. Michigan State heads to Nebraska and Northwestern in the next couple weeks then the Spartans play a tougher than believed Minnesota team. If Michigan State wins out, they will play Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game. Sparty got dissed in 2011 for a BCS at-large for Michigan meaning there is precedence for the BCS to screw Michigan State again.

Northern Illinois Huskies - Currently ranked 15th. The Huskies look well on their way here to another unbeaten season. Northern Illinois had a big fourth quarter against Ball State, but the Huskies struggled with them for three quarters. Some folks believe they could have some problems with Toledo next week at the Glass Bowl.  They will either play Buffalo or Bowling Green in the MAC Championship, but many believe Ball State was the best chance to knock them off.

Fresno State Bulldogs - Currently ranked 14th.  Fresno State could get into this if their friends at UCF or Louisville do not jump them before the year is over, or if Fresno can find their way into the top 12. Fresno figures to keep winning with games against New Mexico and San Jose State to close their year. Fresno State has played no one worth a damn. Rutgers put 50 points of them and took them to overtime. I am sure many people will be upset about this one.

UCLA Bruins - Currently ranked 13th. I think this team has the biggest uphill battle other than Wisconsin. UCLA's next three games are very difficult albeit three of them being at 'home' (Last game is played at Los Angeles Coliseum, very close to home). UCLA beats wins out, they make it to the Pac-12 Championship Game for the third straight year facing either Stanford or Oregon with a chance at a BCS spot. Bruins cannot get into as an at-large in reality but could make another team an at-large who is not.

Oklahoma State Cowboys - Who could believe a West Virginia loss would come back to bit this football team?  They have a brutal schedule to close out the year with playing Texas whose undefeated and could get the BCS spot weirdly enough. It continues with a home games against Baylor and Oklahoma. All three could easily decide who wins the Big 12. I doubt an at-large is likely for them.

South Carolina Gamecocks - They currently have two losses in the SEC and find themselves in the SEC Championship if Missouri were to lose a game. I would say they are a lock to get one of the at-large bids if they end up in the SEC Championship. I could see a situation where they pull a Michigan from a couple years ago and take South Carolina instead of Missouri even if the Tigers get there because the BCS folks might like South Carolina's base, Jadeveon Clowney, etc.

Auburn Tigers - The only way Auburn gets in is if they can beat Alabama in two weeks. Crazy enough if they beat the Tide, Auburn is in the SEC Championship and I am pretty sure the college football world would go crazy. I see no reason why Auburn would get vaulted over others if they lose to Bama.  They also have to beat teams like Georgia before even getting to Alabama.

Missouri Tigers - Sure they only have one loss, but they finish the year heading to Ole Miss and playing Texas A&M at home. Both very tough games. If the Tigers can somehow survive those two, I have to think they at least lock up an-large berth. But for Wisconsin, the good thing is Missouri or South Carolina will cancel each other out.

The chances for Wisconsin to get to the BCS are doubtful at best. They need to root for UCF to win out. If UCF can win their last four games of the year, it might be enough to put them ahead of Fresno State or Northern Illinois. Further, Fresno State is probably not moving up given the two teams they finish with this year. Wisconsin also has to win themselves. They play Indiana this week in a game where I think the Badgers win by three touchdowns maybe around the score of 45-23 and then head for a tough as nails road game against Minnesota next week before finishing at home with Penn State.

Charlie.