CFB Picks Week 13: Calm Before the Storm

I wish SEC and ACC teams would play their conference later in the year versus earlier, it is a clear structure to avoid a late-season loss. It is complete genius and bullshit at the same damn time. Enjoy the picks.  

Grab Your Beers and Friends 
4. Baylor at 10. Oklahoma State 7:00 pm ABC - Biggest game in Baylor's history? I think that's fair to say. The narrative about Baylor is they cannot win games on the road. In Art Briles coaching career with Baylor, there is not a signature road win.  They have went to Stillwater and got absolutely smashed in recent years as well. It would defy logic to pick against a hot Oklahoma State. Cowboys have figured out in the last couple weeks with a massive running attack with Clint Chelf at quarterback and Desmond Roland. This game will be about controlling clock, and maybe it is wrong of me, but I trust this Baylor's defense to make one more stop than Oklahoma State's on Saturday night. BAY 38-31

17. Arizona State at 14. UCLA 6:00 pm FOX - This will determine the Pac-12 South if Arizona State wins on Saturday as they lock up the crown. If UCLA wins, it becomes a three-way race between Arizona State, UCLA and USC with all sorts of tiebreakers. Arizona State feels like a paper tiger to me. They played Stanford way early in the season and got taken to the cleaners. Since then, Sun Devils really have not played strong opponents. UCLA seems to have their swagger back on offense with the best two-way player in recent memory with Myles Jack. If you have not seen Jack play, I highly recommend it. Further, Jack and the defense are playing at a very high level. I think Bruins roll in this one. UCLA 34-17

12. Texas A&M at 22. LSU 2:30 pm CBS - We have a real chance at seeing two fun as hell football games with a ton of offense starting with this one and then the Big 12 explosion. There is no way Brent Musburger does not have the points in both of these ones. Going to Death Valley is always a tough experience, but Johnny Manziel knows there is a chance he can win the Heisman again with two big-time road performances. He also looked like a freshman when he played an LSU defense in early 2012. LSU did get another week to prepare for the Aggies and with the weak Texas A&M defense, Jeremy Hill might have the biggest offensive production day. I have Aggie football taking this one in a close shootout. TAMU 49-45

8. Missouri at 24. Ole Miss 6:45 pm ESPN - Tigers see the tunnel right now. If they win their last two games, they are in the SEC Championship game. If they lose, South Carolina will take their spot given their collapse earlier this season against the Cocks. Missouri gets back James Franklin this week, and here's where that could be a problem. Sometimes when a player especially to Franklin's magnitude comes back, it takes a little while for the offense to get back running on full cylinders. While playing weak opponents minus LSU, Ole Miss has won four straight games. Rebels offense seems to be cooking again, and I believe they will find a way to find this football game. I cannot see Missouri heading into a night game at Oxford and winning this one. OLE MISS 23-17

Channel Flip-Worthy
19. Wisconsin at 25. Minnesota 2:30 ESPN - Check out the Badger preview from earlier today where we talk about the biggest Axe game since 2003. 

5. Oregon at Arizona  2:30 pm ESPN2 - Wildcats have definitely hit hard times. They have lost their last two games including a home loss to Washington State last weekend. Now, they welcome Oregon for their biggest home game of the year. Ducks rebounded nicely last week after their loss to Stanford with a big win against Utah. The only way Arizona keeps this close if they are able to pass the football. Ka'Deem Carey is still doing his thing, but they are not passing the ball at all. If they can create some confusion, Arizona might have a shot. I'm still taking the Ducks. OREG 42-23

13. Michigan State at Northwestern 11:00 am ESPN - Some people have sounded the upset alert cannon. Northwestern has basically been shit on six ways to Saturday so far this Big Ten season, and it seems like they are due for a win. Michigan State's vaunted defense gave up 28 points last week raising some eyebrows that this could be a tougher game. This will be an ugly, B1G football game. I will take Michigan State getting a defensive touchdown being the difference. MSU 13-10

Upset Alert 
20. Oklahoma at Kansas State 11:00 am FOX Sports 1 - Okay, this really is not an upset seeing as Kansas State is favored, but whatever, it's my blog post.  Oklahoma starting running back Damien Williams is suspended for the game plus Kansas State is red hot as of late. They are playing at home, an 11 am start and they play well at home. Little Apple will be fired up, and the combination of Kansas State running backs Daniel Sams and John Hubert will be the difference.  KSU 31-27

A palate cleanser for your Netflix Binge Watch 
Indiana at 3. Ohio State 2:30 pm ABC - Oh man, rough stretch for Indiana. Carlos Hyde might have 300 yards of rushing but I think Ohio State's defense is not as good as Wisconsin's defense. Maybe I'm wrong, I just hope Indiana gets some points. OSU 55-24

23. USC at Colorado 8:30 pm Pac-12 Network - Be careful here USC. Everyone is talking about their season turnaround and Colorado is not good yet it will be 7:30 pm local time with temperatures dipping into the 20's. I think this is close and USC survives barely. USC 20-17

Sleep off your hangover
Chattanooga at 1. Alabama 1:00 pm ESPN3 - BAMA 59-6
Idaho at 2. Florida State 2:30 pm ESPNU - FSU 55-3
Citadel at 6. Clemson 11:00 am ESPN3 - CLEM 52-10
California at 9. Stanford 3:00 pm FOX Sports 1 - STAN 45-14
Coastal Carolina at 11. South Carolina 12:00 pm ESPN3 - SCAR 48-14
New Mexico at 15. Fresno State 3:00 pm ESPNews - FRESNO 62-28
Memphis at 21. Louisville 11:00 am ESPN3 - LOU 45-10